Tuesday 8 May 2012

Quick update (France again)

Just to say, I'm not actually entirely sure about my first post on the french elections anymore. My thoughts on austerity being the only option were based on the market's reactions to the idea, which actually seems to have been a lot less antithetic towards the idea of French Socialists than I expected. So either I was wrong (and the market seems to be acting out of character), the markets are not really expecting them to do anything really significant, or socialism was already built into the share price before the election (I personally find that most likely, but there have actually been scraps of sympathy for France's new direction). Whatever it is though, France is unlucky about the Greek elections, since they really have spooked the market. Which really isn't going to help Hollande's strategy.
Let noone say that I don't admit straight away when I think I might have been significantly wrong (at least if I remember). That said, I will still be rather surprised if Hollande actually manages to abandon austerity without market panic.
A 75% tax rate is still really stupid, though.

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